Project ManagementWork Measurement

Monte Carlo Simulation

A technique that runs thousands of randomized trials to produce a probability distribution of outcomes.

Monte Carlo simulation models uncertainty by sampling input variables from their probability distributions thousands of times and aggregating the results into a distribution of possible outcomes — not a single point estimate.

In project management it turns PERT three-point estimates into a probabilistic completion forecast ("80% chance of finishing by week 14"); in operations it stress-tests schedules, capacity, and inventory policies against variability.

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Monte Carlo Simulation guide→Project Risk Management guide→
Related Terms
Discrete-Event Simulation
Modeling a process as a sequence of events to predict performance, test changes, and find bottlenecks before building them.
PERT
A scheduling method that uses optimistic, likely, and pessimistic estimates to model task duration uncertainty.
Critical Path Method
A scheduling technique that finds the longest sequence of dependent tasks, which determines the shortest possible project duration.
Capacity Planning
Determining the production capacity an operation needs to meet changing demand across short, medium, and long horizons.

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